Trump’s drag on the GOP ticket is now putting state legislatures in play

Both sides of the political aisle have watched the special and off-year elections, noticing that President Donald Trump's coattails not only can't carry anyone, but have been cut off entirely.

That unpopularity is creating a brewing disaster for downballot Republicans in the 2026 midterms, as GOP candidates struggle to distance themselves from his toxic brand amid sinking approval ratings. Salon writer Russell Payne wrote on Monday that Democrats could flip the House and even threaten key Senate seats if Republicans fail to break free from Trump's MAGA stranglehold.

It has been just four months since Democrats swooped into power in New Jersey and Virginia, two states that held elections in Nov. 2025. In the former, Gov. Mikie Sherrill won in a landslide, leaving an open House seat. A special election was called, and in just four months, Trump's already low approval ratings led the Democrat running for the seat to win twice what Sherrill did in the district when running for governor.

"Early signals of trouble go beyond just topline approval numbers of the GOP party leader," wrote Payne for Salon. "Dan Patrick, the Republican speaker of the Texas House, said last week that he believed the party would 'have a tough time' retaining control of the House there, which they have controlled for more than two decades, with a current advantage of 88 to 62."

One of the new efforts comes from Democrats' efforts to challenge as many state legislative seats as possible. It is akin to the so-called "50 State Strategy" but from a more local perspective. When the Democratic Party deployed the strategy it ensured that as many House seats were contested by Democrats as possible. In a blue-wave year, it meant that even in seats where an incumbent Republican outspent the Democrat, the Democrat could still sail to victory.

While Patrick might be worried about Texas, there's reason for other states to be concerned as well.

“Things are lining up well for the Democrats’ chances at the state level in November,” said Peverill Squire, a professor emeritus at the University of Missouri, in an interview with Salon. “If people continue to sour on the Trump administration, it will, of course, hurt the Republican party’s prospects down the ballot.”

"But the party’s problems go beyond just that problem,” Squire added.

“In a number of states where the Republicans enjoy control of the governorship and both houses of the state legislature, they have pushed hard on conservative policies on abortion, education, taxes, and other issues that may lose them votes from independents and suburbanites,” he said. “It is not clear that they will be able to mobilize voters beyond their hardcore base, which is always a concern in a midterm election.”

Squire also noted the hefty "enthusiasm gap" between the two parties. Dems are eager and angry, while many MAGA Republicans are angry that they were bamboozled by Trump's promise of "America First" and "no new wars." Boca Raton Tribune reporter Kartik Krishnaiyer posted a video after looking precinct by precinct at local races that flipped two seats in the March special elections.

"Either you have a significant number of Republicans in Republican areas ... crossing over. Not a high percentage, but enough to make differences on the margins. Everything is about margins," he explained.

The alternative, he said, is "you have a remarkable, and I mean remarkable skewing of independent voters, or NPA [No Party Affiliation] voters, as well, call them here in Florida, toward the Democratic candidate. That is probably the more likely scenario."

That holds true, with polling data showing that independent voters have abandoned Trump in droves. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that independent voters are skewing dramatically toward Democratic candidates.

“We may not see the Democrats succeed at the same level the GOP did in 2010 — gerrymanders and the way Democratic voters are distributed geographically limit their chances — but they may flip a few chambers and greatly reduce the Republicans’ numbers in others,” Professor Squire told Salon.