Solana transactions hit January 2026 lows – Will SOL repeat its 32% crash?

Solana’s on-chain performance diverged from trading activity, as short-term momentum strengthened despite weakening network metrics.

At the time of writing, Solana [SOL] rose 2.4% over the past 24 hours.

However, the broader trend showed the opposite. Price struggled over time, even as some fundamentals held firm. This divergence raised a key question. Could short-term momentum extend into a sustained trend?

Short-term weakness in SOL fundamentals

Solana’s on-chain metrics often signal whether the asset trades above or below fair value. Recent data pointed to weakening network conditions.

Daily Transactions dropped to 79.8 million, at press time, according to Artemis. That level last appeared in January 2026.

During that period, SOL fell 32.54%, from $148 to nearly $99.

This was not an isolated signal. Revenue also trended lower and remained range-bound. That decline coincided with a reduction in transaction activity and weaker fee generation.

When these metrics weaken or lose correlation with price, they suggest declining network demand.

That shift matters, as usage remains central to Solana’s ecosystem value.

Rising market activity

However, market indicators pointed to improving short-term conditions, with price nearing a potential breakout toward $99–$100.

The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator showed sustained buying pressure.

At press time, the A/D line trended upward for five consecutive days. That pattern indicated ongoing accumulation. Trading volume supported this move, reaching nearly 65 million.

On top of that, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trended higher and approached a bullish crossover. This setup forms when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, signaling strengthening momentum.

If this crossover confirms, it could increase the probability of continued upside.

If accumulation persists, SOL may break above its descending channel resistance. A confirmed breakout could push the price toward the $99 level.

The bigger picture

The central question remains whether the current short-term rally is sustainable, especially given weak near-term fundamentals.

Looking at the broader trend provides important context.

Over the longer term, Solana continues to show structural strength. Its stablecoin supply rose by 5% in the first quarter, while DeFi volume surged to $500 billion, the highest among competing blockchains.

Adoption trends add further depth.

New users continue to enter the ecosystem, including participation linked to traditional finance. Notably, Solana’s real-world asset (RWA) value reached $2 billion in the last quarter.

These developments suggest that the current divergence between short-term fundamentals and price may be temporary. If price momentum holds, on-chain metrics could stabilize and realign with a more positive outlook, similar to the trend observed in the first quarter.

Final Summary

• Solana [SOL] gained 2.4% short term, despite weakening on-chain activity and declining transaction volume.
• A breakout above resistance could push SOL toward the $99 level.