SEC's decision date expires after new rules: Five top candidates for October crypto ETF approval
By Felix, PANews Among the many catalysts behind this crypto bull market, ETFs, particularly spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, have become revolutionary financial instruments that significantly lower the barrier to entry for cryptocurrency investment, serving as a crucial "bridge of capital." Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, the industry has attracted over $100 billion in institutional capital, driving the Bitcoin price from $60,000 to its current level of approximately $113,500. As of now, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has 92 crypto spot ETFs (both single-asset and index-based) pending approval. Of these, approximately 69 are single-asset ETFs, covering 24 different cryptocurrencies. These applications primarily come from institutions like Grayscale and VanEck, with final decision deadlines for most being in October. Against this backdrop, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved a proposal that fundamentally changes the way crypto spot ETFs are listed. Therefore, October's approval will not only mark a turning point in the crypto ETF market but also reflect the future direction of this bull market. The US SEC approved the proposed change from "case-by-case review" to "standard clearance" On September 7th, the US SEC approved rule changes proposed by three major exchanges (Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca) to introduce universal listing standards for commodity-based trust shares ("CBTS"). These standards, primarily for exchange-traded products (ETPs) holding physical commodities (including digital assets), replace the cumbersome case-by-case review process and aim to streamline the listing process. The chairman of the U.S. SEC stated in the document that these changes mark a shift in the SEC’s regulation of digital asset ETPs from “cautious case-by-case” to “standardized and efficient,” aiming to “maximize investor choice and promote innovation.” The core contents of the new regulations are as follows: The regulation proposes three listing paths: The product is traded on Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG) member markets and has a market surveillance sharing agreement. Commodity futures are listed on a CFTC-regulated DCM for at least 6 months and have a surveillance-sharing agreement in place. New ETPs may be exempt from some of these requirements if an existing ETF is listed on a U.S. national securities exchange and has at least 40% of its assets allocated to that commodity. In short, the new regulations create a fast track for crypto asset ETFs that meet certain criteria. Based on the three aforementioned pathways, October may be the first period for the listing of new ETFs, with a focus on assets with existing CFTC-regulated futures contracts of at least six months. The original decision date has expired, and ETF issuers are now on the same page. The implementation of the new standards has directly impacted the long queue of ETF applications. On September 29th, the US SEC required issuers of spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), XRP, Sol, ADA, and DOGE to withdraw their 19b-4 filings. Issuers are required to proceed with listing according to the new standards, and the withdrawal process could begin as early as this week. This withdrawal does not represent a complete rejection of the ETF applications, but rather a shift to a more efficient regulatory path. It's worth noting that after a 19b-4 filing is withdrawn, the original decision date (typically the deadline for the SEC to make a final decision on the filing, such as 240 days after submission) may no longer be relevant. Under the new rules, the SEC may not require a strict deadline, but rather conduct a more expedited assessment based on common listing standards. As for when the ETF will be approved, although the issuer needs to resubmit or adjust the application according to the new general rules, which may involve additional administrative work and short delays, most people are optimistic about this and believe that the approval speed may be "exceptionally fast", similar to the ETH ETF which took only a few weeks from withdrawal to approval, that is, it is expected to be approved in October. Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett wrote an analysis saying , "As long as the token meets existing standards, the SEC can approve a cryptocurrency ETF at any time by submitting an S-1 filing. Therefore, even if the deadlines for these individual ETFs are imminent, the SEC can theoretically make a decision on any or all of them at any time." However, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart warned that "everything is full of uncertainty. Add to that the possibility of a government shutdown, and the situation could become very unstable." (Related reading: What would happen to Bitcoin if the US government shut down? ) While it is unclear how quickly the SEC will process S-1 applications, eliminating the predictability of the original decision date, this change optimizes the process and reduces delays for more cryptocurrency ETFs to enter the market. Which of the five candidates will lead the ETF race? Although the ETF applications that were previously waiting in line have returned to the "starting line", the applications that the SEC currently requires issuers to withdraw only involve LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE, which may indicate that the first batch of approved ETFs will emerge from them (or all of them will be approved). 1. XRP ETFs XRP ETF is the most anticipated focus in October. Currently, there are 7 applications for XRP ETF, including Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary, Grayscale and other institutions. Previously, 6 applications were squeezed into the October 18-25 window, and Franklin Templeton's application was postponed to November 14 at the latest for a decision. The XRP spot ETF application was filed in January 2025, and the SEC opened for comment in July after the Ripple lawsuit was resolved. XRP futures have been listed on the CME for over a year, meeting the requirements of the new regulations. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas previously raised the probability of approval for the XRP spot ETF to 95%. This high probability was attributed to the SEC's increased engagement with the application, which the analysts viewed as a "clear green light." In addition, a key advantage of XRP is that it has been recognized as a commodity by regulators, greatly reducing the application barriers for its ETF. 2. SOL ETFs SOL spot ETF is one of the most popular applications at present, with seven large institutions participating, including VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, etc. On September 27th, asset management firms including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and VanEck successively submitted the latest versions of their S-1 forms to the US SEC. These revised documents all focus on the details of the Solana ETF’s staking operations. After the SEC ordered the issuer to withdraw its 19b-4 filing, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas raised the odds of the SOL ETF's approval from 95% to 100%. He stated, "Honestly, the probability of approval is now 100%... The universal listing standard renders the 19b-4 form meaningless. Now only the S-1 remains, and the SOL ETF could be approved at any time." But it’s worth noting that BlackRock (the largest issuer of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs) has not yet submitted an application for a Solana ETF, which may reflect its cautious attitude towards Solana’s regulatory risks. 3. LTC ETFs As one of the longest-running tokens in the crypto market, LTC has maintained a high level of security and decentralization since its launch in 2011. There are currently three Litecoin ETF applications, including the Canary Litecoin ETF, the Grayscale Litecoin Trust ETF, and the CoinShares Litecoin ETF. The previous October 10th deadline for the Litecoin ETF made it a candidate for a "good start." While the expiration of the original decision date has reduced the likelihood of Litecoin ETF approval, LTC's long-term market stability, strong regulatory compliance, and similar technical architecture to Bitcoin still make it highly likely to be among the first to be listed. In addition, Litecoin has not been identified as a security by the SEC like XRP or SOL, and is closer to the commodity attributes of Bitcoin, significantly reducing regulatory barriers. 4. Cardano (ADA) ETF Grayscale's Cardano Trust plans to convert into an ETF. The ETF's S-1 filing was registered in August, with a previous deadline set for October 26th. Cardano is known for its academic foundation and sustainability, and if approved, this spot ETF would be the first non-ETH PoS platform to do so. Notably, Grayscale's GDLC (Digital Large Cap Fund), which included Cardano, was approved on July 1st, further increasing the likelihood of approval for the Cardano ETF. 5. DOGE ETFs There are currently three DOGE ETF applications, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares. The SEC is expected to make a ruling by October 12th at the latest. If the DOGE spot ETF is approved, it will become the first meme ETF. Conclusion Regardless of the outcome, October's crucial window will mark a significant turning point in the history of crypto ETFs, impacting not only the prices of related cryptocurrencies but also the scale and speed of institutional capital inflows. The crypto market is maturing, and the October ETF decision could be a crucial step in furthering its mainstream acceptance. Related reading: SEC's new regulations open the floodgates for crypto ETFs, are the top 10 spot ETFs expected to go online?
