Home/Guide/Market Insights/Others/MEXC Daily News (7.4) | Ethereum On-Chain Data Hits Record High, Bitcoin Market Sentiment Turns Optimistic, 60% Probability of Reaching $115,000 in July
MEXC Daily News (7.4) | Ethereum On-Chain Data Hits Record High, Bitcoin Market Sentiment Turns Optimistic, 60% Probability of Reaching $115,000 in July
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1. Market Overview
According to MEXC data, BTC is currently trading at 109,527.62 USDT, marking a 24-hour increase of 0.34%.
For more updates on cryptocurrency prices and macroeconomic trends, visit MEXC Markets.
2. Industry Data Analysis
2.1 Polymarket Shows 60% Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $115K in July
According to data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, users are currently most optimistic about Bitcoin reaching the $115,000 price range in July 2025, with a corresponding prediction probability of 60%—an 8% increase from the previous day. The "Buy Yes" price stands at $0.60, while the "Buy No" is at $0.41, with a total trading volume of $252,000.
The second most favored range is $120,000, with a 33% probability and a "Buy Yes" price of $0.34. The trading volume for this range has reached $413,000. The $130,000 range holds an 8% probability with similarly high liquidity, recording a volume of $432,000.
In contrast, sentiment is bearish for BTC below the $100,000 mark. The prediction probabilities for the $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 ranges have all declined, standing at 8%, 19%, and 38% respectively. Overall, Polymarket traders show a bullish outlook, with market expectations shifting noticeably toward the $110,000–$120,000 range.
2.2 Data: BTC Holders Show Stronger Conviction as Liveliness Continues to Decline
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Liveliness metric has been steadily declining, indicating that investors are increasingly choosing to hold rather than spend their coins. Unlike previous market cycles where sharp price increases often triggered large-scale profit-taking, the current rally is characterized by sustained holding behavior—even near all-time highs.
This trend reflects a strong long-term conviction among investors and suggests that on-chain holding patterns are becoming more stable. The continued drop in Liveliness is widely seen as a key indicator of strengthening holder confidence and reduced spending activity on the network.
3. Industry Analyst Insights
3.1 Analysis: Ethereum On-Chain Metrics Soar as Institutions Accumulate, but Price Lags Behind
According to analyst Carmelo Alemán, Ethereum recorded several on-chain all-time highs in June 2025. Despite the lack of a significant price breakout, key indicators suggest that institutions are aggressively accumulating ETH, potentially setting the stage for a major market move.
As of June 30, the total ETH held by accumulation addresses (excluding exchange addresses and those with known outflows) reached a record high of 22.7465 million ETH—up from 16.7281 million ETH on June 1. This 6.0184 million ETH increase represents a monthly growth of 35.97%, marking the largest one-month accumulation on record. The average entry price for these addresses is approximately $2,114.70, and with ETH trading around $2,565 as of July 2, these holders are sitting on an unrealized gain of 21.29%.
Meanwhile, liquid staking has also seen historic growth. The amount of ETH staked through liquid staking protocols rose from 34.546 million ETH on June 1 to 35.526 million ETH by June 30—an increase of nearly 1 million ETH (2.83%). This set a new monthly record for staking growth. On July 1, the figure hit another all-time high at 35.564 million ETH.
These trends highlight that a significant volume of ETH is being steadily acquired and locked into liquid staking protocols by institutions, ETFs, and large holders seeking yield while awaiting price appreciation. Lido and Binance ETH Staking have emerged as the primary beneficiaries of this institutional demand due to their scale and competitive returns.
Although ETH's price has yet to make a decisive upward move, the on-chain data points to an intense phase of accumulation. If this pattern persists, it could pave the way for the next ETH bull cycle—driven primarily by institutional participation.
4. Industry News
4.1 U.S. House Republicans Designate Mid-July as “Crypto Week,” Push for GENIUS Act and Other Key Legislation
According to The Block, U.S. House Republicans have declared the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week,” during which they plan to advance three major pieces of crypto-related legislation. These include the Senate-approved GENIUS Act (focused on stablecoins), the CLARITY Act (aimed at market structure), and a bill opposing the launch of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). The initiative is part of broader efforts to support the Trump administration’s digital asset agenda, with a goal of finalizing the legislation by August.
4.2 U.S. House Passes “Big & Beautiful” Act, Trump to Sign on July 5
According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. House of Representatives has passed the “Big & Beautiful” Act with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The White House has confirmed that President Trump is scheduled to sign the bill at 5:00 AM Beijing time on July 5.
4.3 U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis Introduces Comprehensive Crypto Tax Reform Bill, Proposes Tax Exemptions for Small Transactions and End to Double Taxation on Staking
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a sweeping tax reform bill aimed at modernizing how digital assets are treated under U.S. tax law. The proposed legislation seeks to address key concerns within the crypto industry and create a fairer competitive environment for digital asset users across the country.
“To maintain America’s competitive edge, we must modernize our tax code to reflect the realities of the digital economy—not burden digital asset users,” Lummis said. “I welcome public input on this legislation as we work to get it to the President’s desk as soon as possible.”
According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the bill is projected to generate a net revenue gain of approximately $600 million over the 2025–2034 fiscal years. Key provisions of the bill include:
- Tax exemption for small transactions: A de minimis threshold of $300 to exempt minor purchases from capital gains tax
- Elimination of double taxation for miners and stakers
- Tax parity between digital and traditional financial assets, covering areas such as lending, wash sales, and mark-to-market accounting
- Simplified charitable giving: Crypto donations would not require valuation reports
If enacted, this legislation could mark a significant step toward clearer, more equitable tax treatment of digital assets in the U.S.
5. Market Highlights
5.1 Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Partners with HSBC and FAB to Launch Tokenized Bonds
According to CoinDesk, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) has announced the launch of the first blockchain-based bond in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Issued by First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) via HSBC’s digital asset platform, Orion, the bond will be recorded and traded on a distributed ledger and made accessible to global institutional investors through international settlement systems like Euroclear.
The CEO of ADX Group stated that this initiative lays the groundwork for future tokenized offerings such as green bonds and sukuk (Islamic bonds). The move marks a significant step in the UAE’s efforts to digitize traditional financial assets.
5.2 Tornado Cash Co-Founder to Stand Trial in New York on July 14
As reported by Cointelegraph , Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm is set to appear in a New York court on July 14, facing charges of money laundering and conspiracy. His legal team plans to address allegations that he profited from illicit funds through his role in the Tornado Cash project.
Storm declined to confirm whether he will testify in his own defense against charges including money laundering, operating an unlicensed money transmitting business, and conspiracy to violate U.S. sanctions. “That’s a decision we’re still considering,” he said. “I don’t have a 100% answer right now. I might testify, or I might not.”
6. Project Updates
1）Eclipse launches ES airdrop eligibility check portal.
2）Ondo Finance and Pantera Capital plan to launch a $250 million fund to support RWA projects.
3）Tether minted 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network in the early hours.
4）Backpack: Users holding positions today will receive double points; unexpected losses are eligible for compensation upon appeal.
5）LayerZero integrates Bungee.
6）Resolv allocates 5.75% of its token supply to Q2.
7）Tether and Adecoagro will use renewable energy in Brazil to power Bitcoin mining.
8）Bedrock announces the next phase of its strategic reserves, introducing BTC as a long-term value anchor.
9）Owlto is advancing cross-chain infrastructure centered around the USD1 stablecoin.
7. Project Financing Updates
1）Game studio Distinct Possibility Studios secures $30.5 million in funding, led by Bitkraft Ventures and others.
2）The Open Platform completes a $28.5 million Series A round, led by Ribbit Capital.
3）YZi Labs announces investment in Digital Asset.
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