Hold onto “dry powder” while prices swing, says one analyst

Bitcoin BTC$70,377.59 drifted toward $69,000 on Thursday as the deepening conflict in Iran is spiraling across the Middle East, hitting energy infrastructure and spilling into global markets.

Oil remained at the center of the action, as investors pulled back from risk amid fresh headlines around attacks on energy infrastructure. Prices swung back toward $100 a barrel after a Politico report said the U.S. is not considering a crude export ban, reversing earlier declines and keeping inflation worries alive.

That backdrop weighed on traditional markets, especially as investors began to consider that central banks might delay rate cuts or even mull rate hikes, wary of inflationary pressures from an energy shock and supply disruptions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid nearly 1% in morning trading, both hitting fresh 2026 lows.

The more notable move, though, came from metals. Gold dropped 5% to around $4,500 an ounce, its lowest since early February, while silver fell 6.6%, extending a sharp unwind after weeks of outsized gains.

Crypto, by comparison, looked relatively steady. Bitcoin was last trading around $69,400, down about 2.6% on the day. Most major tokens, including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB BNB$642.05 and solana (SOL), were all down, but losses stayed under 3%, and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index was off about 2.1%.

Crypto-linked stocks also moved lower, though not to the same extent seen elsewhere. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) slipped 1.7%, bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) fell 2.6%, while stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) pulled back 6%, giving up some ground after more than doubling over the past three weeks.

Bitcoin holds ground in risk-off move

The simultaneous drop in both gold and bitcoin points to broad de-risking rather than a rotation into safe havens, said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. Rising energy prices are feeding into inflation expectations, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” interest rate outlook and tightening liquidity — a difficult mix for risk assets, he added.

Still, bitcoin has outperformed gold by around 20% during the initial phase of the Iran conflict, noted Bryan Tan, trader at Wintermute, an unusual dynamic for an asset typically treated as a riskier tech name. But the lack of follow-through above $75,000 suggests markets remain cautious and rangebound.

“When sentiment swings on each headline about the conflict, and correlation to oil prices are so elevated, being flat is a strong position,” he said. “We lean towards reserving dry powder until we see a meaningful confirmation in either direction or a material change in market conditions.”