TLDR A partial government shutdown is expected as the House won’t vote on funding until Monday. Polymarket and Kalshi contracts focus on government shutdowns withTLDR A partial government shutdown is expected as the House won’t vote on funding until Monday. Polymarket and Kalshi contracts focus on government shutdowns with

Polymarket and Kalshi Contracts Show Shutdown Specificity in U.S. Government Funding

TLDR

  • A partial government shutdown is expected as the House won’t vote on funding until Monday.
  • Polymarket and Kalshi contracts focus on government shutdowns with differing specifications.
  • A lapse in funding will occur if the House fails to vote on time before the deadline.
  • Polymarket and Kalshi betting odds show high probability of shutdown lasting days.

The U.S. government is on the verge of a partial shutdown due to the House of Representatives not being in session. Although the Senate voted in favor of a funding package late Friday, the delay in the House’s vote will trigger a shutdown by midnight on Saturday, January 31, 2026.

The shutdown is expected to last through the weekend, with no immediate major consequences for the majority of U.S. residents. The situation highlights the role that specificity plays in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

While the Senate passed a crucial funding package, the House will not reconvene until Monday. This delay in the House’s vote has led to a situation where the government is technically in shutdown. This differs from previous prolonged shutdowns, such as the 2018-2019 shutdown, which lasted over a month and disrupted government operations extensively.

Polymarket and Kalshi Contracts on Government Shutdown

Markets like Polymarket and Kalshi offer contracts where users can bet on whether the U.S. government will shut down. These prediction markets highlight the importance of precise definitions when it comes to event-based betting.

For instance, Polymarket’s contracts specify that the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) must announce the shutdown for the bet to resolve as a “Yes.” This added layer of specificity creates a potential gap between when the government technically shuts down and when the shutdown is formally recognized.

Earlier on Friday, the odds for a shutdown were reported at 88% on Polymarket, rising steadily from 40% the day before. A similar contract on Kalshi had the odds at 93%. The movement in odds underscores how news developments, such as the House delay, influence the markets. However, a key aspect of these contracts is their reliance on OPM’s announcement, which has yet to occur.

Specificity in Shutdown Prediction Markets

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi provide valuable insights into the expected duration of the shutdown. One of Polymarket’s contracts focused on how long the government might remain closed.

Contracts betting on a closure lasting one, two, or three days had odds of 90% or higher as of Friday evening. Kalshi, meanwhile, had similar odds, suggesting that users heavily favored a shutdown lasting at least two days.

These betting markets demonstrate how bettors weigh various factors when predicting a government shutdown’s length and outcome. Unlike previous shutdowns, the current partial shutdown is less likely to have long-term economic effects. However, these markets show that bettors are closely monitoring the situation and adjusting their predictions based on the evolving political landscape.

Lapse in Funding and the House’s Role

The latest prediction market odds also indicate a 99.6% chance of a funding lapse by 11:59 PM ET Friday. This lapse would occur if the House fails to pass the funding bill by the deadline.

However, this event is now more likely to occur after the House reconvenes on Monday, making the prediction markets’ focus on January 31st slightly less relevant. As the deadline passes without a vote, the House’s actions next week will become central to the next phase of these contracts.

Bettors in the markets are also considering the broader ramifications of a shutdown, despite its partial nature. If the House does not pass the bill promptly, these markets will likely reflect an increasing sense of uncertainty and shifting odds for the near future. Given the delay in House action, the political and financial landscape remains fluid.

The post Polymarket and Kalshi Contracts Show Shutdown Specificity in U.S. Government Funding appeared first on CoinCentral.

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