Yen pinned near 40-year low in test of Tokyo’s intervention resolve

SINGAPORE: The yen weakened anew on Tuesday as traders grew emboldened to push the currency lower with no sign yet of intervention by Japanese authorities, though the risk of a surprise yen-buying move by Tokyo kept losses in check.

The yen struggled on the weaker side of 162 per dollar in early Asia trade and languished near its lowest level against the British pound since 2007 at 217.09, having slid to a new low overnight.

The euro last bought 185.47 yen, following a 0.5% rise in the previous session.

“There had been speculation at the end of last week that Japan could intervene again to support the yen during the US holiday when trading conditions were less liquid, but no action has been taken, contributing to the yen giving back some of its recent gains,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

The yen found some support late last week as traders grew wary of a possible shift in Japan’s intervention strategy, though they said the currency’s sudden jump on Thursday was not indicative of official action.

Fed hike bets recede

In the broader market, the dollar was on shaky ground as investors continued to pare back expectations of US rate hikes this year following an underwhelming jobs report that came in far below expectations.

The euro edged a touch higher to US$1.1442, extending gains from overnight, while sterling rose to a more than two-week high of US$1.34005.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was last at 100.86.

Investors are now pricing in roughly 29 basis points worth of Federal Reserve rate hikes by December, down from about 38 bps a week ago.

“I think current market pricing is probably a little bit underpriced… we still think that the FOMC will have to start tightening from December… markets are thinking that the rate-hiking cycle will start a little bit sooner than we expect, but the extent of the (hikes) is still below our expectations,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Focus now turns to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) June meeting on Wednesday for clues about the rate outlook.

“We know that (Chair Kevin) Warsh doesn’t like providing forward guidance, so I think the minutes tomorrow will probably be less informative than previous minutes,” Kong said.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar steadied at US$0.6955, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.02% to US$0.5702.