Analysts say a move above $68,000 could trigger a new rally in Bitcoin toward $140,000

Bitcoin is once again testing key support zones, both in its relative performance against stocks and on its weekly price chart. According to analysts, if buyers succeed in holding this critical area and the price climbs back above $68,000, the outlook could shift from weakness to renewed strength, reviving the scenario of a rally toward $140,000 over the longer term.

Key support highlighted in the BTC/SPX ratio

The BTC/SPX ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s performance against the S&P 500 index, has retreated to an area that previously acted as a solid support during market stress. On the weekly chart, the ratio now hovers near the 8 level. This same support has held during past periods, including when the yen carry trade began to unwind and at the June lows earlier this year.

The BTC/SPX ratio is a gauge of how strongly Bitcoin moves relative to the stock market. If the ratio rises, Bitcoin is outperforming the S&P 500. A decline indicates Bitcoin is lagging behind the broader equity market.

Conversely, if the ratio drops below 8, the technical picture may deteriorate. The chart shows that there is limited strong support immediately below this area. As a result, a downward break could shift attention back to levels last seen at the end of 2023, before spot Bitcoin ETFs began their rally.

$68,000 level is crucial on the weekly chart

Bitcoin’s weekly price chart in dollar terms similarly highlights a major macro support zone. Technical analyst BATMAN notes that the current structure closely resembles the period before the 2023 rally. Price action is moving near the lower boundary of a long-standing ascending channel, a region that has served as long-term support in previous cycles.

On the same chart, the weekly RSI indicator has also returned to zones historically associated with increased demand. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is commonly used to measure the speed and momentum of price movements. Historically, this area has often marked phases where selling pressure eased and buyers stepped back in.

Mini glossary: The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a technical indicator used to assess whether an asset is in overbought or oversold territory, signaling potential weakness or strength in momentum.

The technical outlook places the next primary target for Bitcoin at $140,000 and beyond. However, for this scenario to become the main expectation, Bitcoin must first reclaim resistance in the $68,000 range. For now, investors remain focused on the support from the ascending channel and the weekly RSI area.

Preserving both of these zones could set the stage for a structure similar to the 2023 rally. On the other hand, if support is lost, there is a risk of deeper weakness both relative to stocks and from a broader technical perspective over longer time frames.

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