XRP briefly touched $1.00 on Thursday before bouncing back, and the crypto community is as divided as it has ever been. One camp says this is the beginning of the end. The other says a historic repricing event is just weeks away. The truth, as it often is in crypto, sits somewhere in the middle and the CLARITY Act may be the moment that starts to clarify which side is closer to right.
The Repricing Argument
Grayscale’s head of research recently outlined a scenario that has been circulating widely among XRP investors. If the CLARITY Act passes and regulatory certainty arrives for digital assets, Grayscale sees a genuine case for XRP to be repriced across the market.
“I think we would see a repricing across a range of assets, certainly including XRP,” the Grayscale executive said, pointing to strong demand for Grayscale’s own XRP product as evidence that institutional interest has not disappeared despite the price weakness.
He added that clarifying questions around XRP’s long-term token supply outlook could unlock additional value, and that reducing future token inflation would have a meaningfully positive effect on price.
The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in May with a bipartisan 15 to 9 vote and is now on the Senate Legislative Calendar awaiting a full floor vote. The White House has been pushing hard for passage before the August recess, which leaves a narrow window of legislative days remaining.
Where XRP Actually Stands
XRP has fallen from $1.70 to $1.00 over recent weeks, a correction that fits the historical pattern of bear market lows in previous cycles. The token has dropped approximately 70% from its all-time high of $3.65, consistent with the 75% drawdowns seen in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets before major recoveries followed.
The current price action reflects a broader market under extreme stress. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 16. Bitcoin is testing multi-month lows below $60,000. Total crypto market cap is approaching the $2 trillion level that many view as critical support. In this environment, XRP holding $1.00 as a psychological floor matters more than it might in calmer conditions.
The Cycle Argument
Veteran crypto analysts who called the October 2025 market top based on four-year cycle timing are now pointing to the same framework to argue that a bottom is forming. Every bull market in Bitcoin’s history has been followed by a 50% to 77% drawdown before the next cycle began. The current drawdown at approximately 51% from the Bitcoin peak sits well within the historical range for a cycle low.
The pattern that preceded previous XRP recoveries is also forming. The 90% of retail investors who bought near the top and are now sitting on losses represent the capitulation phase that historically marks the most attractive entry points. The 10% who accumulate during maximum fear are the ones positioned to benefit when the cycle turns.
What the CLARITY Act Could Mean
The CLARITY Act would establish clear legal boundaries between the SEC and CFTC over digital asset jurisdiction for the first time in American history. For XRP specifically, which spent four years fighting the SEC before winning a landmark ruling that it is not a security, regulatory clarity at the legislative level removes the last remaining legal overhang and opens the door to institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for exactly this kind of certainty.
Whether that translates into an immediate repricing depends entirely on whether Congress delivers before the August recess. The window is narrow. The stakes for XRP and the broader crypto market are significant.
