IREN Stock Jumps 10% as Dell Deal and AI Contracts Drive Momentum

TLDR

• IREN stock rose 10% on Thursday despite Needham issuing a Hold rating on the stock
• Needham analyst John Todaro cut revenue estimates for FY2026 and FY2027 due to delayed AI contract recognition
• Todaro now expects IREN to hit its $3.7B ARR target in Q1 FY27, not end of FY26
• IREN signed a $1.6B purchase agreement with Dell for air-cooled Blackwell AI systems
• The Blackwell deployment, set for early 2027, is expected to push ARR from $3.7B to $4.4B

IREN stock climbed 10% on Thursday, closing the session firmly higher even as Needham analyst John Todaro initiated coverage with a Hold rating.

IREN Limited, IREN

The stock rose to around $57 during regular trading. Todaro did not assign a price target.

Todaro said his team lowered revenue estimates for IREN’s fiscal 2026 and 2027. He now expects the bulk of IREN’s key AI contracts to be recognized as revenue in Q3 and Q4 of FY26, rather than earlier in the year.

That shift means slower near-term revenue growth, with an acceleration expected in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Todaro also pushed back the timeline on IREN’s $3.7 billion annualized recurring revenue (ARR) target. He now sees that milestone being reached in Q1 FY27, rather than by the end of FY26 as previously expected. IREN’s current ARR stands at $3.1 billion.

Needham’s Hold rating also reflects concerns about IREN’s reduced Bitcoin mining operations. The company is winding down its mining infrastructure as it pivots to AI cloud services, repurposing hardware for AI workloads. With Bitcoin prices down, that side of the business is contributing less to the bottom line.

Despite the cautious note from Needham, Wall Street’s overall view on IREN remains constructive. The stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on six Buys, three Holds, and one Sell over the past three months. The average price target sits at $74.56, implying around 31% upside from current levels.

IREN Signs $1.6B Dell Deal for Blackwell Systems

Earlier, on May 26, IREN announced a $1.6 billion purchase agreement with Dell to acquire air-cooled Blackwell AI systems. The deal supports a previously disclosed five-year, $3.4 billion managed services AI cloud contract.

The $1.6 billion covers hardware, networking, and integration services. IREN said the goal is to speed up its “time-to-compute” capabilities, which it describes as the main constraint in the current AI market.

Deployment is planned at IREN’s data center campus in Childress, Texas. Commissioning is scheduled for early 2027.

Once fully operational, IREN expects the Blackwell expansion to lift its annualized run-rate revenue from $3.7 billion to $4.4 billion.

Co-CEO Daniel Roberts said the Dell deal gives IREN the hardware scale and speed needed to stay competitive. He pointed to IREN’s full-stack control — covering physical infrastructure through to operational deployment — as a key part of its strategy to serve hyperscalers, enterprises, and developers.

Todaro Ranks Among Top Wall Street Analysts

Todaro is a five-star analyst on TipRanks, ranked 38th out of more than 12,000 tracked analysts. He focuses on AI cloud companies that also operate as digital asset miners.

He holds a 65% success rate with an average return of 66.10%.

IREN’s Dell-backed Blackwell deployment remains on track for early 2027 commissioning at its Childress, Texas campus.

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