BTC Targets Breakout as ETF Inflows Return And Oil Fears Ease

• Bitcoin trades at $70,776, up 3.43%, breaking above the $69,456 SAR level inside a rising channel on the 30-minute chart.
• US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $167.03M in daily net inflows on March 9, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $109.31M.
• Oil prices drop from $120 to $93 a barrel after Trump signals the Iran conflict is nearing an end, lifting risk appetite across markets.

Bitcoin price today trades near $70,776, up 3.43%, as easing geopolitical tension gives buyers enough cover to push the price back above $70,000. The macro backdrop shifted meaningfully overnight. 

Oil prices, which had surged to nearly $120 a barrel on fears of prolonged Middle East supply disruption, dropped sharply to around $93 after President Trump stated the Iran conflict would end very soon. or Bitcoin, which has traded in close correlation with broader risk assets throughout this downturn, the relief in energy markets removes one of the key headwinds that has weighed on price through early March.

30-Minute Chart: Rising Channel Breaks Above Key SAR Level

The 30-minute chart shows Bitcoin forming a clean rising channel from the March 9 lows near $65,800, with price breaking above the Parabolic SAR at $69,456 and the key horizontal resistance at $69,500 that had capped multiple attempts over the past week. The Chaikin Money Flow sits at 0.11, holding positive territory and confirming that buying pressure is supporting the move rather than it being a low-volume drift.

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Price is currently pressing toward the upper boundary of the rising channel near $72,000 to $73,000. A clean break above that zone with sustained CMF above zero would open the path toward the $73,165 50-day EMA on the daily chart, the next significant resistance level.

Key levels:

• SAR support: $69,456
• Channel lower boundary: ~$68,500 rising
• Immediate resistance: $71,000
• Channel upper boundary: ~$72,000 to $73,000
• 50-day EMA target: $73,165

Daily Chart: Bull Market Support Band Remains The Long-Term Battleground

The daily chart puts the recovery in perspective. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and has since surrendered more than 40% of its value, with price spending the last several weeks compressing inside a demand zone between $60,000 and $65,000. The Bull Market Support Band sits at $84,738 to $86,705, far above current price, and reclaiming it would be the first real signal that the longer-term trend is turning.

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The more immediate task is clearing the 20-day EMA at $68,721, which price has now broken above on an intraday basis. A daily close above that level, followed by a test of the 50-day at $73,165, would represent the most meaningful technical progress BTC has made since the November breakdown began.

ETF Flows Return As BlackRock Leads

US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $167.03M in net inflows on March 9, snapping a streak of heavy outflows that included $348.83M leaving on March 6 and $227.83M on March 5. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $109.31M in a single day, confirming that institutional demand is returning at current price levels rather than waiting for further downside.

Cumulative net inflows across all US Bitcoin spot ETFs now stand at $55.54B, with total net assets at $88.34B representing 6.41% of Bitcoin’s total market cap. The return of positive daily flows after a brutal outflow week is a meaningful shift in institutional sentiment that the chart alone would not capture.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

• Bullish case: BTC holds above the $69,456 SAR level, clears the rising channel upper boundary at $72,000 to $73,000, and closes a daily candle above the 50-day EMA at $73,165. Continued ETF inflows and further de-escalation in the Iran conflict would reinforce the move toward the $80,000 to $84,000 zone.
• Bearish case: Rejection at $71,000 to $72,000 drops price back below the SAR at $69,456 and retests the $65,000 to $60,000 demand zone. A re-escalation of the Iran conflict pushing oil back toward $120 would restore the macro headwind that has pressured risk assets throughout this correction.

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