Bitcoin Price Prediction: Top 4 Risks Facing BTC in June

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price slumped to a crucial support level this month.
• Spot BTC ETF outflows have continued this month.
• US bond yields have risen, a sign that the Fed will hike rates.

Bitcoin price remained above the key support of $60,000 today, June 10, as the recent recovery lost momentum. BTC was trading at $61,200, a few points above the weekend low of $59,600. Still, the coin faces some major risks that may trigger a retreat to $50,000 and below.

Bitcoin Price Faces the Risk of Capital Rotation to Stocks

A major risk facing Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is the fact that American investors have started to capitulate. Many holders have seen Bitcoin continue lagging behind the broader stock market and decided to start exiting their positions.

The best way to look at this is to consider the performance of the ETF market. Data shows that the outflows from the stock market have accelerated in the past few months. These funds have shed over $4 billion in the last four weeks, and the trend is gaining steam.

In contrast, investors have piled their cash into the stock market. For example, the popular Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) crossed the important $1 trillion milestone earlier this week. In total, stock and fixed ETFs have added over $1 trillion in assets this year as investors take advantage of the booming AI sector.

Rising Bond Yields are Pushing Investors Away From Risky Assets

The other key risk to Bitcoin’s price is that US bond yields have continued to rise this year. The two-year bond yield has jumped to 4.2% this year, while the longer-term 30-year yield has jumped to over 5% this month.

This uptrend continued this week after the US published strong jobs and PMI numbers. Reports by ISM and S&P Global showed that the manufacturing and services sectors were doing well, with the PMIs remaining above 50. That is a sign that these sectors are expanding despite the challenges in the economy.

More data showed that the US labor market is stabilizing despite the elevated AI disruption. Therefore, these numbers are raising the probability that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year. Polymarket and Kalshi odds for hiking rates have continued to climb.

These fears will be confirmed later today when the US publishes the latest consumer inflation report. Economists expect the data to show that the headline CPI jumped to 4.2% in May, while the PPI jumped to 6.4%.

US-Iran Tensions Risks

The other main risk facing BTC price in the near term is that tensions between the US and Iran are escalating. The two have engaged in combat operations this week, and there is a risk that the ceasefire will end. For example, the US launched some missile attacks against Iran overnight as it retaliated following Iran’s downing of a US helicopter.

Iran responded by launching attacks against Bahrain and Kuwait. At the same time, Israel intensified its attacks against Lebanon. A return to war will lead to more volatility in the energy market and higher inflation over time. Such a move would make Bitcoin less attractive as its role as a safe-haven asset has been discredited.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

The other main risk facing Bitcoin is its weak technicals. It has remained below all moving averages, a sign that bears remain in control. The coin’s oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have continued falling.

Therefore, there is a risk that the BTC price will continue falling in the near term. If this happens, the next key target to watch will be the psychological level of $50,000. On the other hand, a surge above the key resistance level at $70,000 will point to more gains, potentially to $82,607, its highest point in May.

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