Tesla Stock Price Prediction as TSLA Tests the $350 Support Level (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) closed Friday, November 6, at $358.22, up 4.23%, one session after a 10.77% plunge to $343.69 that was the lowest close of the past 50 sessions. The stock traded as low as $338.15 on Thursday, which pushed below a cluster of lows between $345.20 and $351.67 that had held since late August, and then recovered to close back above that area on Friday. The drop followed the November 3 midterm elections, after which investors worried about the pace of data-center construction and the outlook for a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX. Thursday's volume of about 79.7 million shares was 2.15 times the recent average, and Friday's rebound came after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production in Texas around the middle of next year. This article walks through the selloff, Tesla's latest results, what the chart shows and how bulls and bears are reading the setup.

 

Tesla's most important report of the quarter came on October 21, when it released third-quarter results. Revenue was $28.05 billion, down 0.2% from a year earlier, with automotive revenue of $20.56 billion, energy generation and storage revenue of $2.88 billion and services and other revenue of $4.61 billion. Gross profit was $5.49 billion, and GAAP gross margin rose by 160 basis points. Operating expenses rose to $4.78 billion, so income from operations fell to $718 million, an operating margin of 2.6% compared with 5.8% a year earlier.

Earnings per share were $0.22 on a GAAP basis and $0.48 on a non-GAAP basis, against a consensus estimate near $0.455. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $787 million on a GAAP basis. Capital expenditures were $4.73 billion, free cash flow was $1.53 billion, and cash and short-term investments were $45.45 billion. Tesla said it achieved a second consecutive quarter of trailing-twelve-month revenue above $100 billion, delivered 486,532 vehicles in the quarter and unveiled the Next Gen Roadster and an updated Tesla Semi in October. Capital spending for 2026 is expected to exceed $20 billion, and the fourth-quarter report is expected in late January 2027.

The newest announcement came on Friday. Musk wrote on X that Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production. Tesla does not report Cybertruck sales separately, but its other-models line, which includes the Cybertruck, Model S, Model X and Semi, delivered 8,295 vehicles in the third quarter, down 48% from a year earlier and under 2% of total deliveries.

The decline started with the election. Tesla fell 1.32% on November 3 to $398.50, 3.34% on November 4 to $385.19 and 10.77% on Thursday to $343.69, a three-session loss of 13.75% from the November 2 close of $403.82. Tesla and SpaceX together lost more than $420 billion in market value in two days.

Investors tied the move to two worries. The first was the pace of data-center construction, since Democrats won races for Senate, governor and attorney general in Texas, where both companies are headquartered, and SpaceX has increasingly relied on renting out computing capacity. Tesla is also tied to the buildout through its energy unit, which pitches storage systems to data-center operators. The second was a potential merger. Musk said on SpaceX's third-quarter call last month that a deal with Tesla would be a good idea and that special committees at both companies were exploring it. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co said he still believes a merger happens but that it now faces a tougher regulatory path in 2027, and David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors said a less friendly Congress makes the path messier without automatically blocking it.

Thursday's decline also came with a market-wide rout. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% to 7,353.73 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00, which left it 11.9% below its record and in correction territory. Tesla opened at $374.12, reached a high of $374.30, fell to $338.15 and closed at $343.69.

Friday brought a rebound. Tesla opened at $348.92, traded between $347.60 and $363.84 and closed at $358.22 on about 36.7 million shares, below the recent average. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.09% to 24,579.42, and EV stocks rose together.

The chart story is a support zone that was tested from below and then reclaimed. Between August 28 and October 16, Tesla posted lows of $345.20 on August 28, $347.15 on August 31, $349.92 on September 2, $351.32 on September 4, $351.67 on September 29, $345.88 on September 30 and $349.33 on October 16. Only two closes in the 50-session window finished below $350, $348.75 on August 28 and $343.69 on Thursday.

 

 

Thursday's low of $338.15 sat $7.05, or 2.04%, below the August 28 low of $345.20, while Friday's low of $347.60 stayed inside the zone and the $358.22 close finished $8.22 above $350. The area between $345 and $352 is now the lower edge of the range in which Tesla has traded since late August.

The averages sit above the price. Calculated from daily closes, the 20-day simple moving average sits near $380.42 and the 50-day near $372.14, which places Friday's close about 5.84% and 3.74% below them. The stock closed at $407.46 on October 27, the highest close of the window, and it has lost 12.08% since then through Friday.

Volatility spiked. Thursday's range from $338.15 to $374.30 equaled about 10.5% of the close, the widest of the window and well above the 50-session average of about 3.2%, followed by October 16 at about 6.0%. Sixteen of the last 49 daily closes moved 3% or more in either direction, and five moved 5% or more.

The $300 area mentioned in some commentary sits much lower. Tesla's 52-week low is $297.38, reached earlier this year, and Thursday's low was still 12.72% above $300. Friday's close is 20.46% above the 52-week low and 28.19% below the 52-week high of $498.83.

The support holds reading. Bulls point out that Thursday's break below the zone was short-lived, since Friday's low of $347.60 held inside it and the close finished back above $350. They note that the stock fell with the market and with peers, that Friday's rebound included the Cybertruck news, which investors may view as a reallocation of factory space to the Cybercab, and that third-quarter non-GAAP EPS beat estimates. Under this view, the August to October lows between $345 and $352 remain a floor for the stock.

The support breaks reading. Bears note that the stock closed at the lowest level of the window on Thursday, that Friday's volume was below average, which suggests the rebound lacked urgency, and that the close sits below both the 20-day and the 50-day averages. They also point to a 2.6% operating margin, capital spending above $20 billion this year and uncertainty about a merger that could face more scrutiny in a new Congress. Under this view, Thursday's break shows how fragile the area has become.

Both camps are reading the same chart. The disagreement is whether a zone that was pierced and reclaimed in two sessions has been strengthened or weakened.

Traders watching Tesla should separate three kinds of risk. The first is event risk. Thursday's move showed how sensitive the stock is to political and regulatory news, including anything about the potential SpaceX merger, data-center policy and congressional scrutiny of Musk's companies. Tesla's next earnings report is expected in late January.

The second is sector risk. Tesla fell 10.77% on a day when the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and most AI-linked stocks fell more, and it rose with the group on Friday. The debate about data-center spending after the elections is not settled.

The third is level risk. The $345 to $352 zone and the Thursday low of $338.15 are visible on any chart, so reactions near them can be sharp. Context matters too. Even after the drop, the stock trades about 20% above its 52-week low. This article is informational and is not financial advice.

Tesla ended a volatile week with a 4.23% rebound that moved the stock back above the $350 area after a 10.77% plunge pushed it below that zone. The company's latest results show thin margins and heavy spending, and the market is weighing a possible merger, a data-center policy debate and a Cybertruck wind-down that frees space for the Cybercab. The next dated catalyst is the fourth-quarter report in late January. Do you think the $350 area holds as support, or does Thursday's break show how fragile it has become?

A: Tesla fell to $343.69 as investors worried that Democratic wins in the midterm elections could slow data-center construction and complicate a possible merger with SpaceX. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% the same day.

A: Tesla rose 4.23% to $358.22 as technology stocks rebounded and after Elon Musk said Cybertruck production in Texas will wind down around the middle of next year to make room for more Cybercab production.

A: No. Tesla's 52-week low is $297.38, and Thursday's low of $338.15 was 12.72% above $300. The stock closed Friday at $358.22.

A: Revenue was $28.05 billion, operating margin was 2.6%, GAAP EPS was $0.22 and non-GAAP EPS was $0.48.

A: Calculated from daily closes, the 20-day average is near $380.42 and the 50-day near $372.14, so the close sits about 5.84% and 3.74% below them.