Hunan Yueyang police dismantled a black-and-gray industry chain operating under the guise of buying and selling virtual currencies, with the amount involved being nearly 170 million yuan.

Nate Geraci, the president of NovaDius Wealth Management, highlights the growing market confidence surrounding the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF this year.  He referenced data from Polymarket showing that XRP ETF approval odds stood at 87%. This indicates that Polymarket users are 87% confident the U.S. SEC will approve at least one XRP ETF this year.  Notably, the data shows a 16% surge in approval odds over the past year. This reflects heightened confidence in the likelihood of XRP ETFs launching by the end of 2025.  Approval Is Near Certain  Meanwhile, Geraci believes the approval odds are closer to 100%. To him, it is almost certain that the XRP ETFs will go live this year. Despite his belief, he warned investors not to consider his speculation a formal investment recommendation.  For context, Polymarket enables users to bet on real-world events, spanning a range of topics from politics to economic developments. Before the launch of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs, traders on the platform had also assigned high approval odds—and both products were eventually approved in the U.S.  The same scenario is playing out for XRP, with approval odds currently standing at 87%. On June 3, bettors' confidence spiked to around 98.2% but has dipped slightly ot the current level at 87%.  XRP ETF Race Intensifies  Meanwhile, the XRP ETF race has been gaining momentum lately. Last month, several issuers, including Bitwise, Canary, Grayscale, and Franklin, updated their XRP ETF applications. According to the update, the issuers require the funds to facilitate XRP or cash creations, as well as cash or in-kind redemptions.  At the time, many analysts suggested that the update indicated that prospective issuers were addressing specific SEC requests. So far, the SEC has postponed its decision on XRP ETFs on several occasions. However, by October 2025, the securities regulator must decide on these pending XRP products.  People Are Underestimating Demand for XRP ETF  Meanwhile, Geraci noted that many people are underestimating the demand XRP ETFs will attract. This suggests that he expects the demand for the investment product to exceed people’s expectations.  https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1962318097437634890 He noted that the same thing happened with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs before they went live. In his follow-up comment, he shared screenshots of his prediction about strong demand for ETFs separately tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum.  Although skeptics expressed doubts before the launch, the products eventually attracted strong interest. For context, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $54 billion in inflows, and Ethereum funds have recorded inflows worth $13.53 billion.

Original article: that1618guy , market researcher at Delphi Digital Compiled by Yuliya, PANews The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time this cycle in September. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rise before easing policies are implemented, but retreat after rate cuts are implemented. However, this pattern doesn't always hold true. This article will review the performance in 2019, 2020, and 2024 to predict possible trends in September 2025. 2019: Expected rise, then a fall In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from $3,000 at the end of 2018 to $13,000 in June. The Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30, respectively. Each rate cut decision signals the near exhaustion of Bitcoin's upward momentum. BTC surged before the meeting, but was subsequently sold off as the reality of weak economic growth resurfaced. This suggests the market had already priced in the positive impact of the rate cut, leaving the reality of slowing economic growth to dominate subsequent price movements. 2020: An exception to the emergency rate cut March 2020, when the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero in response to the panic caused by the coronavirus pandemic, was not a typical cycle. During this liquidity crisis, BTC plummeted along with stocks, but subsequently rebounded strongly thanks to massive fiscal and monetary policy support. Therefore, this was a unique case driven by the crisis and cannot be used as a template for predicting trends in 2025. 2024: Narratives trump liquidity The trend changed in 2024. BTC did not fall back after the interest rate cut, but continued its upward momentum. The reasons are: Trump's campaign turned cryptocurrency into an election issue. Spot ETFs are attracting record inflows. MicroStrategy continues to see strong buying demand at the balance sheet level. In this context, the importance of liquidity has declined, with structural buying and political factors overriding traditional economic cycle influences. September 2025: Conditional market launch The current market backdrop is different from the runaway rallies of past cycles. Bitcoin has been consolidating since late August, ETF inflows have slowed significantly, and corporate balance sheet buying, once a persistent tailwind, has begun to wane. This makes the September rate cut a conditional market trigger rather than a direct catalyst. If Bitcoin rises sharply before the interest rate meeting, the risk of history repeating itself will increase - that is, traders "sell the fact" after the easing policy is implemented, resulting in a "rise followed by a fall" situation. But if prices remain stable or move slightly lower before the decision, much of the excess positioning may have been eliminated, making the rate cut more of a stabilizing force in the market rather than an end to the upward momentum. Core Viewpoint The current trend of Bitcoin may be affected by the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting and related liquidity changes. Overall, Bitcoin may see a wave of increases before the FOMC meeting, but the increase may be difficult to break through new highs. If prices rise sharply before the meeting, then a "sell the news" pullback is likely; However, if prices consolidate or fall between early September and the meeting, there is a possibility of an unexpected rise due to interest rate adjustments. However, even if there is a rebound, the market still needs to be cautious. The next leg up may form a lower high (around $118,000 to $120,000). Assuming this lower high occurs, it could set the stage for the second half of Q4, when liquidity conditions are expected to stabilize and demand may pick up again, pushing Bitcoin to new highs.